Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
What could have been…
Anthony Richardson’s rookie season was on pace to be so, so fun. The sample size was small, but Richardson showed signs of not just fantasy relevancy, but fantasy greatness. Injuries ultimately limited him to just 98 total dropbacks, 577 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 136 rushing yards and 4 additional scores on the ground. Entering the 2024 campaign, there aren’t many more exciting players than Richardson, who has top-five upside at the quarterback position.
What Went Right
Well, did you watch him play?
Yes, the sample size was small (fewer than 100 dropbacks), but Richardson showed unbelievably exciting traits. He made impressive off-platform throws, continued to demonstrate his insane arm strength and was very effective when taking off and running. In those 98 dropbacks, Richardson showed flashes of being a fantasy superstar, averaging 0.73 fantasy points per dropback in Weeks 1-5, the most in the league. Richardson played the majority of the snaps just twice during his shortened rookie campaign, finishing as the QB4 and QB2 in those contests. And in Weeks 2 and 5 when he left early, Richardson was on pace for top-10 fantasy days again, especially Week 2 where he scored nearly 18 fantasy points in just a half of work. Richardson’s upside was unlocked with his rushing potential, as he averaged 6.3 rush attempts and 34 rushing yards per game, while scoring four rushing touchdowns through just two full games. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line through Week 5, while handling 18% of Indianapolis’ designed rush attempts during that span.
And while Richardson obviously missed most of the season, he still had something going right for him, even when he wasn’t playing. In Shane Steichen’s first season in Indianapolis, the Colts offense looked legit and fantasy-friendly. Last season, the Colts operated at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 24.0 seconds per snap, while their 16.6% no-huddle rate was the highest in football. They also ran RPOs just over 18% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL.
What Went Wrong
Obviously, Richardson only playing 162 total snaps falls under the category of something going wrong. He suffered a concussion in Week 2, forcing him to miss Week 3. And then in Week 5, Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. There were a handful of moments where Richardson would get banged up on designed runs and although he has tremendous size, it would be encouraging to see him look to slide or get out of bounds more in his sophomore season.
Prognosis Entering 2024
From a redraft perspective, I have Richardson as a top-five quarterback this season. Am I putting too much stock into his 98 dropback sample from last year? Possibly, yes. Do I care? Not at all.
Richardson has everything going for him to ascend into one of the elite fantasy signal callers in his first full NFL season. You want play volume from his offense? Check. How about deep ball potential? You bet. Rushing upside? Absolutely. And the Colts also gave him more help this offseason, selecting Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. We also only saw Richardson and Jonathan Taylor play a handful of snaps together last year, so he essentially adds Mitchell and Taylor to an offense that already has Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs.
Dynasty Outlook
At the moment, Richardson is coming off the board within the first 10 selections in superflex dynasty startup drafts. He is the QB7 behind only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And although he hasn’t even come close to playing a full NFL season yet, I still believe that is where he belongs. He showed flashes of keeping up with the elite fantasy quarterbacks, leads a fantasy-friendly offense and just turned 22 years old.
