Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darrell HendersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Rams
Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
- The model projects Darrell Henderson to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack in this week’s contest (50.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (36.1% in games he has played).
Cons
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their standard game plan.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to run on 35.7% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Dallas’s DE corps has been very good this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
