Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-135) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to accrue 18.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this season (85.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (68.6%).
With a terrific record of 65.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (87th percentile), Joe Mixon stands as one of the leading pure runners in the league this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to blocking for rushers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.
The Seahawks defense has had the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards