Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 42.5% run rate.
- The model projects Derrick Henry to garner 16.7 carries in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- Out of all running backs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 71.6% of the workload in his team’s run game.
Cons
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to lean 4.0% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
- This year, the poor Baltimore Ravens run defense has given up a whopping 3.67 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 25th-biggest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
