Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Brian Robinson to accumulate 13.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game this year (65.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (52.4%).

Cons

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Commanders to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson’s 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a a material drop-off in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 63.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards