Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).

Pros

The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
This week, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 14.8 rush attempts.
Breece Hall has garnered 48.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Breece Hall has grinded out 74.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
Breece Hall’s rushing efficiency has improved this year, totaling 6.82 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 5.78 figure last year.

Cons

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Jets as the 10th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
This year, the fierce Eagles run defense has conceded a puny 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards