Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- This week, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 14.8 rush attempts.
- Breece Hall has garnered 48.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Breece Hall has grinded out 74.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
- Breece Hall’s rushing efficiency has improved this year, totaling 6.82 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 5.78 figure last year.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Jets as the 10th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
- This year, the fierce Eagles run defense has conceded a puny 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
