Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-120) after it opened @ 86.5 (-113).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Tyreek Hill is predicted by the projection model to land in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.0 targets.
- Tyreek Hill slots into the 98th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 77.7 mark this year.
- Tyreek Hill’s 118.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last year’s 92.0 mark.
- Tyreek Hill’s sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 70.8% to 73.9%.
- Tyreek Hill’s 12.3 adjusted yards per target this year marks a a significant growth in his receiving skills over last year’s 9.4 figure.
Cons
- With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
- After accumulating 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decline this season, currently pacing 121.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
100
Receiving Yards
100
Receiving Yards
