Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run 64.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Chicago Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.4 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by the projection model to find himself in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 8.3 targets.
- T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 93rd percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 40.6 mark this year.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
- T.J. Hockenson has notched quite a few less air yards this year (49.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
- T.J. Hockenson’s skills in generating extra yardage have diminished this year, accumulating a measly 4.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 mark last year.
- This year, the fierce Bears pass defense has surrendered the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing TEs: a feeble 3.5 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
