Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashee Rice from EV Insight

Rashee RiceReceiving Yards

Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-137) after it opened @ 30.5 (-113).

Pros

Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Rashee Rice has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an exceptional 74.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile among WRs.
The Broncos pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.5%) versus wide receivers this year (79.5%).
This year, the poor Broncos defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 10.27 yards.
The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards