Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Logan Thomas has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a massive 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the worst in football.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a meager 3.3 YAC.
The Falcons safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards