Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
In regards to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a massive 73.0 per game.
With an exceptional 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts stands as one of the best TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
Kyle Pitts’s 58.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a meaningful gain in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 49.3% rate.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 126.7 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Kyle Pitts has been featured much less in his offense’s passing attack.
Kyle Pitts’s 1.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a substantial reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 6.6% rate.
This year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has allowed a puny 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards