Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-129) after it opened @ 50.5 (-117).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
- Garrett Wilson has gone out for fewer passes this season (98.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (86.4%).
- The projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Cons
- The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
- After accruing 94.0 air yards per game last year, Garrett Wilson has significantly declined this year, now averaging 87.0 per game.
- With a subpar 6.9 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the weakest wide receivers in the game in the league.
- With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the best pass-catching WRs in football in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
