Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-114) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to lean 4.0% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
This game’s line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
This week, DeAndre Hopkins is predicted by the model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets.
After accumulating 111.0 air yards per game last year, DeAndre Hopkins has seen a big uptick this year, now averaging 116.0 per game.

Cons

At the present time, the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (57.6% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
DeAndre Hopkins’s 72.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 82.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards