Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-135) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- With regard to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.40 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Eagles as the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- With an exceptional 91.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert places among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
- In this game, Dallas Goedert is predicted by the model to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
- Dallas Goedert has posted a colossal 36.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The the Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- Dallas Goedert has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
- Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.2% to 74.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
