Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-145/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-145) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.3% of his offense’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to accumulate 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore’s 99.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a a meaningful growth in his receiving talent over last year’s 49.0 rate.

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
The Vikings safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards