Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 136.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
- In this contest, Christian Kirk is expected by the projection model to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.2 targets.
- Christian Kirk has been among the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 67.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.7%) versus wide receivers this year (70.7%).
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Christian Kirk has compiled far fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (67.0 per game).
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
