Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Adam Thielen’s 83.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 47.0 mark.
- This year, the shaky Dolphins pass defense has yielded a massive 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The the Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
