Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-120) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).
Pros
- With regard to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.40 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Eagles as the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has shown good development this season, now pacing 134.0 per game.
- A.J. Brown’s 81.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 70.9.
- A.J. Brown’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 80.0 rate.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Jets defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 117.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
