Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Sam Howell to throw 36.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Sam Howell has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 270.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
This year, the fierce Falcons defense has allowed a mere 204.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a measly 7.1 yards.
The Falcons safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards