Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 206.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the model to call 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The New England Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast Mac Jones to attempt 36.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
- Mac Jones has been among the worst per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.30 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-fewest yards in the league (just 212.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Raiders defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
173
Passing Yards
173
Passing Yards
