Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-105) after it opened @ 221.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Lamar Jackson’s passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 71.6%.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a fantastic 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 79th percentile.
- This year, the weak Titans defense has yielded a whopping 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.
- The Titans pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, surrendering 8.48 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.1.
Projection
THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards
209
Passing Yards
