Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-129) after it opened @ 63.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
- In this game, Travis Etienne is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 91st percentile among RBs with 15.8 carries.
- After making up 51.6% of his offense’s carries last year, Travis Etienne has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 66.3%.
- Travis Etienne has generated 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (83rd percentile).
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to run on 38.3% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Travis Etienne’s 3.5 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a a significant drop-off in his running proficiency over last year’s 5.1 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
