Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-129) after it opened @ 63.5 (-117).

Pros

The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.5 plays per game.
In this game, Travis Etienne is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 91st percentile among RBs with 15.8 carries.
After making up 51.6% of his offense’s carries last year, Travis Etienne has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 66.3%.
Travis Etienne has generated 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (83rd percentile).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

The Jaguars are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to run on 38.3% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
Travis Etienne’s 3.5 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a a significant drop-off in his running proficiency over last year’s 5.1 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards