Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-113) after it opened @ 56.5 (-117).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
In this contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the projection model to slot into the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.8 carries.
After accounting for 41.6% of his offense’s carries last season, Tony Pollard has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently sitting at 65.0%.
Tony Pollard’s 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a a noteable improvement in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 58.0 rate.
With a terrific rate of 4.84 adjusted yards per carry (76th percentile), Tony Pollard ranks among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
Tony Pollard has been less successful in picking up extra ground yardage this season, averaging 2.64 yards-after-contact vs a 3.82 rate last season.
Since the start of last season, the feeble 49ers run defense has yielded a whopping 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 31st-worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, San Francisco’s group of safeties has been great this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards