Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-130) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 64.8 plays per game.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.
- The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to total 16.2 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a a remarkable reduction in his rushing prowess over last year’s 59.0 figure.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s ground effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a measly 2.69 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.77 mark last year.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 100 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, New Orleans’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
