Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Khalil Herbert from EV Insight

Khalil HerbertRushing Yards

Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chicago Bears to run on 48.6% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect Khalil Herbert to earn 12.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among RBs.
After comprising 30.2% of his team’s rush attempts last year, Khalil Herbert has been called on more in the ground game this year, currently accounting for 43.3%.
The Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
With a remarkable tally of 45.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), Khalil Herbert rates among the best RBs in football this year.

Cons

The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
Khalil Herbert’s 4.4 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a a significant decline in his rushing prowess over last year’s 5.4 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards