Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 51.3% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projections to call 67.1 total plays in this game: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
- In this game, Gus Edwards is expected by the model to rank in the 78th percentile among RBs with 13.2 carries.
- This year, the poor Steelers run defense has given up a whopping 149.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 4th-worst in football.
Cons
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Gus Edwards has been a more important option in his team’s offense this year, playing on 44.2% of snaps vs just 26.4% last year.
- Gus Edwards’s 2.52 yards-after-contact this year signifies a a meaningful decline in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 3.64 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
