Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-135) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
In this contest, Brian Robinson is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 86th percentile among running backs with 15.0 rush attempts.
Brian Robinson has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this year (66.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (52.4%).
With an impressive rate of 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Brian Robinson rates as one of the leading pure runners in football this year.
Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 34.6% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league last year in run blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards