Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to garner 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
Zach Ertz has been a more important option in his team’s passing game this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.5%).

Cons

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.1% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Bengals defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Zach Ertz’s 34.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a a noteable decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 41.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards