Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- The predictive model expects Zach Ertz to garner 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Zach Ertz has been a more important option in his team’s passing game this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.5%).
Cons
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.1% pass rate.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Bengals defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
- Zach Ertz’s 34.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a a noteable decrease in his receiving prowess over last year’s 41.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
