Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Our trusted projections expect Sam LaPorta to total 7.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- With a remarkable 22.5% Target% (98th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta ranks among the TEs with the highest volume in football.
- With a remarkable 53.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been among the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
Cons
- The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
