Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Falcons vs. Texans
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
- The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts’s 52.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a a noteworthy progression in his receiving talent over last season’s 49.3% rate.
- This year, the poor Houston Texans pass defense has conceded a monstrous 84.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.
Cons
- The projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Texans defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has seen a big downtick this season, currently pacing 62.0 per game.
- Kyle Pitts’s 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.
- Kyle Pitts’s 1.82 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a a noteworthy diminishment in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
