Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential target this year (98.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (86.4%).
- In this week’s game, Garrett Wilson is forecasted by the projections to place in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.
- Garrett Wilson’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.1% to 66.7%.
- The Broncos pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
- After totaling 94.0 air yards per game last season, Garrett Wilson has seen a big decline this season, now boasting 82.0 per game.
- Garrett Wilson’s 6.4 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a an impressive reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 7.6 figure.
- The Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.59 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
