Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential target this year (98.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (86.4%).
In this week’s game, Garrett Wilson is forecasted by the projections to place in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.
Garrett Wilson’s possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.1% to 66.7%.
The Broncos pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the league.

Cons

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
After totaling 94.0 air yards per game last season, Garrett Wilson has seen a big decline this season, now boasting 82.0 per game.
Garrett Wilson’s 6.4 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a an impressive reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 7.6 figure.
The Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.59 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards