Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
- CeeDee Lamb has been among the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an exceptional 76.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- CeeDee Lamb has put up quite a few less air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
- CeeDee Lamb’s 56.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 67.6.
- This year, the daunting 49ers defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a puny 7.0 yards.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
