Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-115) after it opened @ 285.5 (-118).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.2% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (338.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 71.8%.
Tua Tagovailoa’s pass-game efficiency has improved this season, notching 9.95 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 8.22 rate last season.
New York cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Dolphins are a heavy 13-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 218.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards