Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (+108/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (+108) after it opened @ 238.5 (-113).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a terrific total of 248.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Sam Howell places as one of the best passers in the NFL this year.
This year, the weak Bears defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a colossal 9.11 yards.

Cons

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Sam Howell to throw 33.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards