Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Eagles
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 278.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 278.5 (-110) after it opened @ 277.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Rams offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Matthew Stafford’s passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 61.4%.
- The Eagles defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
