Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 278.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 278.5 (-110) after it opened @ 277.5 (-110).

Pros

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 7th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year, averaging 26.60 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Rams offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Matthew Stafford’s passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 61.4%.
The Eagles defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards