Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 255.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 255.5 (-110) after it opened @ 251.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- The projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 37.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (271.0 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
- This year, the weak Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a monstrous 8.96 yards.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Bengals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
- The Bengals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s 188.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a a substantial regression in his passing proficiency over last year’s 289.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards
273
Passing Yards
