Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.9% run rate.
- The model projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Tony Pollard to accumulate 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Cons
- The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Tony Pollard has struggled more with generating extra ground yardage this year, totaling 2.71 yards-after-contact vs a 3.82 mark last year.
- The New England Patriots defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, New England’s collection of safeties has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
