Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rhamondre Stevenson has grinded out 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (82nd percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most yards in football (127 per game) vs. the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack in this contest (40.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.5% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 2.91 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.77 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards