Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-119).
Pros
- The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- The predictive model expects Jerome Ford to accumulate 13.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Jerome Ford has been among the top RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 4.12 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-fewest yards in football (just 93 per game) versus the Ravens defense since the start of last season.
- Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
