Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- The predictive model expects James Conner to earn 15.4 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- James Conner has grinded out 66.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to RBs (94th percentile).
Cons
- The Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a giant 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the 11th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Cardinals to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest yards in the league (just 74 per game) against the 49ers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
