Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.4 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Brian Robinson to garner 14.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
After making up 52.4% of his offense’s carries last season, Brian Robinson has played a bigger part in the run game this season, now comprising 73.4%.
Brian Robinson has generated 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
Brian Robinson has been among the best RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.28 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 76th percentile.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 10.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders as the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Commanders to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-fewest yards in football (just 109 per game) against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards