Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-135) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a giant 14.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- The model projects Zach Ertz to accrue 6.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 55.4% pass rate.
- The model projects the Cardinals to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- Zach Ertz’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 66.2%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
