Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Colts vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential target this year (85.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).
- Tyler Higbee has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.56 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
