Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential target this year (85.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).
Tyler Higbee has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.56 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards