Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jets vs. Chiefs
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Jets are a big 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jets have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 57.7% pass rate.
- The model projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
