Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jets vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-134/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Travis Kelce to accrue 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 25.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- As it relates to air yards, Travis Kelce grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a colossal 67.0 per game.
- The Jets defense has been gouged for the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (57.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Travis Kelce’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.6% to 63.6%.
- Travis Kelce’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, notching a mere 6.12 yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 figure last year.
- When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York’s unit has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
