Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Puka Nacua from EV Insight

Puka NacuaReceiving Yards

Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-132/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+102) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to earn 10.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Puka Nacua grades out in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers this year with a colossal 31.5% of his offense’s air yards accumulated.

Cons

The Rams have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in football.
The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to be much less involved in his team’s passing game in this week’s game (27.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (34.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Colts defense has conceded the 9th-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards