Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-115) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Kendrick Bourne has garnered a colossal 33.7% of his team’s air yards this year: 86th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- Kendrick Bourne’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.8% to 59.6%.
- Kendrick Bourne’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a mere 6.67 yards-per-target vs a 9.61 rate last year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (63.5%).
- Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
