NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.1% pass rate.
- Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.5% to 59.4%.
- Jake Ferguson’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 4.98 yards-per-target vs a 8.06 figure last season.
- The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
