Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-131) after it opened @ 61.5 (-117).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
- Our trusted projections expect D.K. Metcalf to accumulate 8.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- As it relates to air yards, D.K. Metcalf grades out in the towering 96th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 101.0 per game.
- D.K. Metcalf’s 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in football.
- D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
- The Giants pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (64.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
